Ripple vs SEC: this won’t go without a fight

Ripple, the sixth largest cryptocurrency in the world by capitalization, showed an incredible price triple increase of 20% in March. Yes, it is already rolling back by more than 10%, but the fact remains. 

Investors reacted favorably to rumors that Ripple has a good chance of successfully completing a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As a rule, important news doesn’t go unnoticed by traders and has an impressive impact on prices and decision-making. Without economic calendar, you could be missing these significant developments. So don’t neglect these events, because even minor news, such as rumors, greatly affect prices.

Let’s remember that in December 2020, the regulator filed a lawsuit against the company, accusing it of selling unregistered securities in the form of XRP to retail investors. Yes, three years of torment will soon come to an end and the coin will become free again. XRP was once criticized by Bitcoin proponents for being “pre-mined”, as XRP is built directly into the Ripple protocol and does not require mining. But a new round of development and a lawsuit warmed up interest in it as a speculative instrument rather than an investment deposit.

So, on March 20, news appeared: Ripple’s lawyer James Filan claimed that the defendants had submitted new arguments to the court in support of their position. They cited the March 8 decision by Judge Michael Wiles regarding the SEC’s claim to the deal of buying the Binance.US assets from bankrupt crypto lender Voyager Digital.

The decision in the Voyager case could have major implications for the outcome of the Ripple lawsuit. So it reinforces the position of the developers, who claim that no clear guidance was given to the company whether XRP is a security or not. New arguments against the SEC increased the optimism of market participants, which was reflected in the price of the XRP token.

Ripple’s capitalization soared from $20 billion to $25 billion in a few hours, and the price overcame several important levels, including the maximum left after the January growth. 

As it happens, when Bitcoin rises, everything else tends to rise as well. When it falls, everything else comes with it. Maybe someday the market will get rid of this bad habit, and the correlation will not be so strong. For example, XRP moves quite freely on its own.

In fact, right now, Ripple is in a correction. Buyers are closing out their profitable positions and sellers are trying to take back control.

From the point of view of indicators such as RSI, the price was above the level of 80, which indicated it was incredibly overbought and the decline was inevitable.

However, the MACD is just beginning to reverse and move towards a death cross. It’s worth remembering that it works with a greater delay, but gives stable signals. There is a high probability that the signal will be formed, but not confirmed, since the price drop below the level of 0.4300 will be perceived by buyers as a defeat and all their volumes will no longer make sense.

In fact, the price is exactly at the support level, which is a mirror image and reflects the all-time high of January 23rd. Accordingly, before the upward breakdown, it acted as resistance, where sellers held control. After it, however, the level became supported and buyers actively relied on it.

Based directly on volumes and price movement, there is a possibility that now the price will move in the range of 0.4300-0.4800. The edges of the deviation of the volume profile histogram indicate that a relative balance between supply and demand can be established until the next piece of news breaks in the order.

And yet, it is also worth remembering that the court may reject the part of the case that claims that XRP itself is a security, since there are no precedents confirming that a digital asset can be classified as such. Or the case will be considered in a limited scope. So the court will focus solely on whether the sale of Ripple XRP in the US was an unregistered securities sale.

Thus, the news background remains unstable and traders should remain extremely cautious. The market reaction can be significant and unexpected, because the SEC is not going to go down without a fight.

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