Soccer is the most popular game in the world. At the height of the season, several hundred soccer matches are played every day in a wide variety of leagues around the world. Many fans of the sport fuel their interest in watching by betting. But how do choose the right outcome of an event and make a good prediction on a soccer match? In this article, we will give some tips to help you choose the right outcome.
Table of Contents
Choosing a soccer league for the beginner
It is much easier to predict the top leagues than the championships at a lower level. It is much easier to find information about Chelsea before their match against Manchester United than it is to find information about Belarus’ Slavia Mozyr. But that doesn’t mean you should necessarily choose the English Premier League over the Belarusian or Indian championships. Read more about the national leagues on our site.
The fact is that surprises happen much more often in the top leagues. Last season Chelsea welcomed Burnley, one of the league’s underdogs, at home. It would seem possible to bet on the home team with a minus handicap. What can “Burnley” do? It can do something. The match ended in a draw. Burnley was able to impose themselves on one of the leaders.
Now consider an almost identical situation in the championship of Belarus. “Slavia Mozyr” is in 7th place in the standings. There are three clear outsiders in the championship – “Vitebsk”, “Dynamo Brest”, and “Dnipro Mogilev”. “Slavia” won in face-to-face matches against these teams with a score of 3-0, 3-1, and 3-1, respectively.
In poor championships, such as Belarus, the difference in the level of teams is much greater than in the top ones. Favorites or even mediators beat outsiders more often and bookmakers give good odds for such matches. For example, when Slavia outplayed Dnipro, the odds on the former were about 1.7. While the team won 4 wins in 5 marginal matches, Dnipro went on a series of 3 straight losses. If you look more often towards the favorites when making a prediction, it is better to pay attention to the championships of the low level. For example:
- Bulgaria: 2 divisions;
- Latvia: First League;
- Championship of Kazakhstan;
- Championship of Belarus;
- Championship of Slovakia.
It is worth assessing the national leagues of India. There is a wide spread of results, and local bookmakers offer separate bonuses for those who bet on “their”
Current form: how to analyze correctly
No matter what you choose, the dull championship of Kazakhstan or the German Bundesliga or the familiar Indian leagues. The first thing to do after selecting a league is to familiarize yourself with the current form of the teams. Sites like “flashscore” can help you with this. You can also check the team statistics on the “livescore”.
If the teams play in the same league, you should check the standings. See how many clubs are scoring on average per game. It may not be necessary to try to predict the winner, and it is better to bet on the total match or both to score.
For example, at the beginning of last season, Aston Villa in the Premier League of England started with 4 defeats in 5 games but never left the field without a goal. In the 5th match, Aston Villa faced West Ham at home. The bet “both goals scored” has played already on 33 minutes of the match, which was quite predictable if you read the statistics. The odds of such an outcome were about 1.7.
When making a prediction and evaluating the current form of the teams, you should always look at the level of the previous opponents – it is very important. It will take more time, but it will significantly increase the probability of making a correct prediction. A situation may arise when team 1 is on a streak of 5 wins in a row, and team 2 has not won (losses and draws) for 4 matches. However, team 1’s opponents were outsiders or mid-majors, and Team 2’s opponents were the league leaders. It is unlikely that a defeat by an outsider is quoted higher than a draw or a close defeat by the leader.
There are nuances in Eurocup matches. Sometimes it happens that one team is in the middle of a match, while the other just started the championship or is in the offseason. In that case, the team that has already started the championship will be in better shape. They are already in a playing tone and have played dozens of official matches. The match-ups and official matches are very important and you have to pay attention to that aspect.
The current state of the teams is also affected by injured players. The middles and underdogs are often very dependent on their leaders and losing them could have a big impact on the club’s performance. Top teams often have longer benches and more skillful replacements. Despite this, you have to familiarize yourself with the level of injured players. No matter how long the bench is, the loss of a notional Messi can have an impact on the game.
What you need to know about “head-to-head encounters”
There are many patterns to be found in face-to-face matches. Sometimes head-to-head encounters are even more important than the current form of the teams. The league leader may be uncomfortable with a mid-tier team due to the tactics of the other. Also in head-to-head encounters, there are other interesting moments.
Let’s take the English Premier League from January 20 to February 19 as an example. During this period, Tottenham, along with their opponents, scored 20 goals in 6 games. Quite a good performance. The team was facing a match against outsider Burnley, which ended in a 0-1 away defeat. That’s pretty predictable, considering that since 2020, the teams have only managed to score more than 2 goals per match once. No matter how many goals there have been in the last few matches, head-to-head encounters matter more in this situation.
The start of the championship: how to bet at the start of the season
You have chosen the league, and read the face-offs and edge matches, but what about the motivation? At the beginning of the season, all teams are charged and go on the field to win every game, but there are some nuances. The top teams as the season progresses may have more serious training camps to build a base of physique that will last until the end of the season.
The outsiders, meanwhile, can bet on the beginning of the championship and hold lighter training camps to pick up points from the leaders and middlers at the very beginning of the championship, who may not have recovered from the stresses of the preseason. Therefore, at the beginning of the championship, you can look at a plus handicap on those teams that are considered outsiders or have moved up from the division below.
Let’s take the whole of the same Premier League in England as an example. “Everton” fought for a place in the best championship in the country and they managed to stay there. In the first 7 games, the club had 4 wins and two draws, once with Manchester United. After that, the team did not win for a month. Yes, there were defeats from the leaders, but also from equal strength teams Everton suffered defeats.
How to study sports news correctly
To increase the passability of the predictions made, you should always be aware of the latest events in the world of soccer or a particular league. This applies to the following:
- player transitions;
- interviews with players and coaches.
All of this needs to be read, analyzed, and taken into consideration. Familiarizing yourself with the news does not take much time and will help you in making a prediction. Sometimes the poor morale of a team’s leaders can seriously affect the team’s play. Or on the contrary, the club can be in high spirits and radiate confidence.
When there is good chemistry between the players and the staff, it adds to the chances of a win or a good performance in the upcoming matches. You can keep up with the news on specialized soccer websites, which are easy to find.
Motivation and the importance of the match
Motivation is one of the most important aspects of the team. A motivated club from the bottom of the table may win or fight against the leader, for whom this particular match is of little importance. Therefore, you should always look at the positioning of the teams and the tournament outlook.
For example, the top team that has lost its championship chances, but is already in the Champions League may have a lackluster match against a motivated underdog that needs to take points and fight for a place in the top division.
For example, take the match Bayern – Stuttgart, which took place on May 8 this year. Bayern had already secured the championship, while Stuttgart struggled to stay in the Bundesliga. The odds on the visitors were about 9, and the match ended in a 2-2 draw. A bet on the visitors’ plus handicap went for very good odds.
Why you should not let your emotions run wild
There should not be any bias when making a prediction. If you are a fan of Manchester United, you should avoid the matches of this team. It is important to always remain unbiased. When in doubt about the choice of the outcome, sympathy for a particular club or player can harm the result.
This article presents the main points that you need to pay attention to in the first place to make a good prediction on soccer. As you gain experience, the list may be supplemented, but the above are the basics.